Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:30:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F7 0xf7f3…4e79 sports 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$415 (-10%) realized −$414 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%37W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$33
14 days−$29
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$429
other 21% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +28.9% +16.6% 70% 70% +3.3%
≤30d 21 +6.4% -3.7% 57% 52% -3.5%
≤90d 54 -2.8% -12.1% 54% 50% -12.0%
all 67 -5.7% -14.7% 55% 49% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 49% -18.5%
10% -22.9% 48% -26.3%
15% -30.3% 46% -33.4%
20% -37.2% 40% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$59 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$414
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses37 / 30
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)67 / 70
History coverage199d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Navajo Stirling 73¢ 72¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims) Allan Nascimento 64¢ 64¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Main Card) Christian Rodriguez 63¢ 62¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $24 +$26 +104%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $16 +$11 +73%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $24 +$15 +63%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $23 +$17 +73%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -29%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $21 +$16 +76%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Iwo Baraniewski win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $9 +$6 +73%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 14 $36 +$19 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 05 $22 −$22 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 05 $25 −$25 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 05 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $97 +$5 +6%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 30 $2 +$3 +114%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim May 30 $30 +$19 +64%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 30 $26 +$24 +96%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $41 −$7 -16%
O/U 4.5 Rounds May 25 $3 −$3 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 25 $2 −$2 -98%
O/U 4.5 Rounds May 20 $27 +$23 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 15 $12 −$12 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 13 $35 −$35 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight May 13 $36 −$35 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 12 $49 −$48 -99%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 12 $39 +$31 +79%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 12 $55 +$35 +65%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $62 −$61 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Robert Bryczek vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Main Ca May 03 $50 +$20 +41%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 03 $34 +$36 +104%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 03 $46 +$34 +73%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre May 03 $53 +$33 +63%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Apr 27 $356 −$356 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C Apr 26 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Kevin Christian (Light Heavyweight, P Apr 26 $10 −$10 -98%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Apr 26 $32 +$18 +57%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Apr 25 $41 −$40 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Apr 24 $50 −$50 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Norma Dumont (Women's Bantamweig Apr 24 $46 −$45 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, Apr 24 $51 +$1 +2%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Apr 19 $36 +$34 +96%
UFC Fight Night: Tanner Boser vs. Gokhan Saricam (Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 19 $61 +$39 +64%
Fight to Go the Distance? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 15 $66 −$65 -99%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $35 +$43 +124%
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $62 +$68 +108%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 12 $19 −$19 -100%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 08 $122 −$121 -99%
UFC 327: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight, Prelims) Apr 07 $36 −$35 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweigh Apr 05 $66 +$52 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 73¢ $32 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 64¢ $26 1h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 63¢ $25 1h
O/U 0.5 Rounds SELL Over 99¢ $40 3d
Will the fight be won by submission? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 72¢ $51 4d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 57¢ $16 4d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 56¢ $21 4d
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Over 60¢ $24 4d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 59¢ $26 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $24 7d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 57¢ $23 13d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) BUY Bruno Silva 54¢ $22 13d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 50¢ $25 13d
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P BUY Jordan Leavitt 37¢ $15 13d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Brendan Allen 64¢ $36 13d
Will Iwo Baraniewski win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 13d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma SELL Deiveson Figueiredo 29¢ $103 19d
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Perez 50¢ $34 19d
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim BUY Luis Felipe Dias 61¢ $25 20d
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim BUY Luis Felipe Dias 61¢ $4 20d
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Rodrigo Vera 51¢ $13 20d
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Rodrigo Vera 51¢ $13 20d
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim BUY Luis Felipe Dias 61¢ $2 20d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 46¢ $2 22d
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Perez 58¢ $41 22d
O/U 4.5 Rounds BUY Over 54¢ $3 24d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 41¢ $2 24d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Deiveson Figueiredo 23¢ $25 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.38 · official $81.38 (match) · 175 history records