Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F7 0xf7f1…d6e7 crypto 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$69 (+27%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate89%8W / 1L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$55
14 days+$62
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$38
crypto 32% +$5
sports 6% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +60.6% +45.3% 100% 75% +24.5%
≤30d 9 +50.4% +36.0% 89% 67% +23.2%
≤90d 9 +50.4% +36.0% 89% 67% +23.2%
all 9 +50.4% +36.0% 89% 67% +23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.0% 67% +23.2%
10% +23.0% 67% +11.4%
15% +11.1% 56% +0.6%
20% +0.2% 33% -9.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.34 per $1 lost it wins $13.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage14d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $76 $75 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $10 +$15 +152%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $4 +$7 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 03 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $76 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $4 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 39¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $13 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.20 · official $75.20 (match) · 21 history records