Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F7 0xf7ef…afa1 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$304 (+6%) realized +$198 · open +$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day82.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$653now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$330
other 15% +$348
sports 3% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +7.7% -2.6% 62% 58% -10.1%
≤30d 24 +7.7% -2.6% 62% 58% -10.1%
≤90d 24 +7.7% -2.6% 62% 58% -10.1%
all 24 +7.7% -2.6% 62% 58% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.6% 58% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.9% 54% -18.7%
15% -20.4% 46% -26.6%
20% -28.2% 33% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$150 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$653
Realized+$198
Unrealized+$106
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day82.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $477 $553 +$76 (+16%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 69¢ 98¢ $70 $99 +$29 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$52 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $256 +$127 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $203 +$56 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $613 +$30 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$97 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $155 +$162 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $103 +$56 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $202 +$40 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $312 −$155 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $930 −$488 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $206 +$203 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $270 +$267 +99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $61 +$33 +55%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$28 +27%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 23 $102 +$193 +189%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $479 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $261 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $303 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $287 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $652.72 · official $652.72 (match) · 107 history records