Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F7 0xf7ed…8b66 crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$202 (+11%) realized +$202 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate85%28W / 5L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$410
sports 5% +$17
other 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +13.5% +2.7% 85% 45% +11.2%
≤30d 33 +13.5% +2.7% 85% 45% +11.2%
≤90d 33 +13.5% +2.7% 85% 45% +11.2%
all 33 +13.5% +2.7% 85% 45% +11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.7% 45% +11.2%
10% ← realistic here -7.1% 45% +0.6%
15% -16.1% 39% -9.1%
20% -24.3% 21% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$41 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.02 per $1 lost it wins $3.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$202
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses28 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage2d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $208 +$192 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $56 +$26 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$49 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $62 −$58 -94%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $14 +$1 +7%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $18 +$7 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $12 +$1 +6%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$34 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $54 +$30 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$33 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$10 +154%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $19 +$7 +39%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $12 +$5 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$47 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $54 +$22 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $519 +$135 +26%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $208 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $56 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $52 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $62 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $14 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 13h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 72¢ $8 16h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $5 16h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $5 16h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 94¢ $12 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $24 21h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 98¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 22h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 79¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $54 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $35 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $18 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $9 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.34 · official $9.34 (match) · 92 history records