Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf7ed…ca2c crypto 27 markets active 6d ago coverage 581d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate100%24W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 99% +$9
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% +$1
other 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -6.9%
≤30d 4 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -6.9%
≤90d 7 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.4%
all 24 +5.6% -4.4% 100% 12% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 12% -9.4%
10% -13.6% 8% -18.1%
15% -21.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -29.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

581d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses24 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage581d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 98¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 20 Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Will Solana dip to $70 in January? Mar 23 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Mar 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Mar 23 $4 $0 +3%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 08 $1 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 08 $1 $0 +10%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 08 $1 $0 +32%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 11 $1 $0 +6%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 11 $1 $0 +8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 06 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120,000 and $122,000 on Septembe Oct 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in September? Oct 22 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120K and $122K on August 18? Sep 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Sep 22 $4 $0 +5%
Will Liverpool lead the EPL in points at midway point? Aug 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Aug 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary? Aug 18 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Nov 26 $7,751 +$8 +0%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House Nov 25 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 98¢ $2 6d
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $2 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2 6d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 99¢ $2 86d
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 86d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 86d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua BUY Yes 97¢ $4 160d
Will Solana dip to $70 in January? BUY No 99¢ $2 160d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $3 160d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 91¢ $1 188d
Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 20 BUY Yes 96¢ $1 188d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 188d
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 223d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 98¢ $1 223d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 223d
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 238d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 238d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? BUY No 98¢ $3 238d
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in September? BUY No 89¢ $10 268d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120,000 and $122,000 on Septembe BUY No 100¢ $1 268d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120K and $122K on August 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 303d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? BUY No 95¢ $4 303d
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 534d
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 534d
Will Liverpool lead the EPL in points at midway point? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 534d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 95¢ $7,759 568d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 95¢ $4,796 568d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,112 568d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,114 568d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 95¢ $520 568d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.48 · official $6.48 (match) · 55 history records