Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F7 0xf7e9…bccf sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized +$23 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$8
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$4
other 2% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -14.7% -22.8% 62% 54% -7.8%
≤30d 15 -15.8% -23.8% 60% 53% -8.0%
≤90d 15 -15.8% -23.8% 60% 53% -8.0%
all 15 -15.8% -23.8% 60% 53% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 53% -8.0%
10% -31.1% 40% -16.8%
15% -37.8% 20% -24.8%
20% -43.9% 13% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage8d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 50¢ 34¢ $45 $31 −$14 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$31 +102%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $46 +$14 +31%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $40 +$6 +15%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $154 +$12 +8%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $13 +$6 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $12 −$9 -76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $19 +$3 +17%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 +$5 +30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 +$1 +55%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 53¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 46¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 52¢ $10 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $10 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $61 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $40 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $46 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 86¢ $40 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 100¢ $166 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 95¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 95¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 91¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 80¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $18 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 15¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 28¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 61¢ $12 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 100¢ $23 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 87¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 87¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 99¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 76¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.26 · official $31.27 (match) · 38 history records