Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F7 0xf7e8…7953 crypto 1135 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$82,703 (-74%) realized −$82,399 · open −$304
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%616W / 516L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day36.2pace
Fees−$809est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$7,279
crypto 46% −$6,316
other 2% −$445
world 1% −$405
finance 0% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -23.7% -30.9% 41% 40% -26.2%
≤30d 433 -16.6% -24.5% 46% 45% -21.6%
≤90d 1132 -12.4% -20.7% 54% 46% -21.3%
all 1132 -12.4% -20.7% 54% 46% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 46% -21.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 38% -28.9%
15% -35.2% 31% -35.7%
20% -41.6% 22% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$94 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$82,399
Unrealized−$304
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses616 / 516
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$809
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1132 / 1135
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$98
Trades / day36.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 43¢ 24¢ $320 $181 −$139 (-44%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 233 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 15 $40 +$17 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $71 −$20 -28%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $94 −$93 -98%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $44 +$52 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$19 +47%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$22 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $69 +$97 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$24 +76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 +$148 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$36 +86%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $40 +$17 +41%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $42 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $40 +$19 +48%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $52 −$51 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $192 −$189 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $100 −$99 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $228 −$29 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $101 +$33 +33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $78 −$78 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $81 +$97 +119%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $304 −$300 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$10 -5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $120 −$118 -98%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $206 −$110 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $209 −$200 -96%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $207 +$96 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $408 −$295 -72%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $354 −$340 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $249 −$249 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $325 −$310 -95%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $201 +$56 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $257 +$543 +212%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 30m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A SELL ODDIK 96¢ $58 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 20¢ $20 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 52¢ $85 5h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ODDIK 66¢ $40 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 18¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 34¢ $36 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $66 7h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof BUY Wingman 65¢ $40 7h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 57¢ $59 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 93¢ $95 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $60 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $41 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 98¢ $43 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $58 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $49 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $48 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $41 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $55 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $101 11h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 38¢ $41 11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 42¢ $44 11h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $20 11h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $250 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.78 · official $180.78 (match) · 3500 history records