Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:05:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7e8…b089 crypto 1141 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$376 (-4%) realized −$383 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%611W / 529L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day38.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$185
7 days−$212
14 days−$386
30 days−$953
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$623
sports 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 359 -4.4% -13.5% 57% 55% -13.6%
≤30d 1106 -9.8% -18.4% 52% 51% -20.1%
≤90d 1140 -7.5% -16.3% 54% 52% -15.7%
all 1140 -7.5% -16.3% 54% 52% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 52% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 52% -23.7%
15% -31.6% 50% -31.1%
20% -38.3% 44% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$383
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses611 / 529
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1140 / 1141
History coverage37d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day38.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 3¢ 14¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+344%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 435 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$24 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $44 −$33 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $33 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $56 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$15 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $66 −$42 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$14 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $75 −$18 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$18 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $60 +$12 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $59 +$30 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $48 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $82 +$16 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $60 −$8 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$26 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $61 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$7 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $83 −$8 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $88 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$14 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $17 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $98 −$25 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $14 +$9 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $23 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $50 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $22 −$13 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $14 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $14 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$13 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $14 −$13 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.89 · official $11.52 · 2159 history records