Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:59:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F7 0xf7e7…3bc5 crypto 9 markets active 2d ago coverage 154d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,739per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 98% −$15
crypto 1% $0
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 80% 0% -9.3%
all 8 +0.4% -9.2% 75% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,739
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 11 $43 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 16 $20 $0 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $15,365 −$15 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Feb 22 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.98 · official $42.98 (match) · 38 history records