Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:41:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7e7…1e46 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+21%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$3
other 29% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -26.3% -33.3% 50% 50% -34.8%
≤30d 4 -26.3% -33.3% 50% 50% -34.8%
≤90d 4 -26.3% -33.3% 50% 50% -34.8%
all 4 -26.3% -33.3% 50% 50% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 50% -34.8%
10% -39.7% 25% -41.1%
15% -45.5% 25% -46.8%
20% -50.9% 25% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$32 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 32¢ 32¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $39 −$32 -81%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $33 −$32 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $44 +$27 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $10 33m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 35m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 44m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 45m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 1¢ $1 48m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $39 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 31¢ $33 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $72 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $44 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.47 · official $9.47 (match) · 9 history records