Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:25:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F7 0xf7e5…cebb sports 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$868 (+43%) realized +$871 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +175% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +149% what you keep after slip
Net edge+149%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$557
7 days+$850
14 days+$850
30 days+$852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$93
sports 26% +$940
tech 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+148.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +183.4% +156.4% 60% 60% +15.8%
≤30d 21 +174.9% +148.7% 62% 57% +15.0%
≤90d 21 +174.9% +148.7% 62% 57% +15.0%
all 21 +174.9% +148.7% 62% 57% +15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +148.7% 57% +15.0%
10% +124.9% 52% +4.0%
15% +103.2% 43% -6.0%
20% +83.3% 38% -15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +175% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +130% → late +216% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$80 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$871
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)21 / 27
History coverage16d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 43¢ 42¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 48¢ 46¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 +$46 +180%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $24 +$37 +152%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $12 +$588 +4757%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $76 +$74 +97%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$126 +124%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $20 +$7 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $20 +$4 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 +$12 +57%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $24 −$23 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $540 −$468 -87%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $44 −$43 -98%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$229 +1521%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $504 +$176 +35%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $166 +$163 +98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 11 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $72 +$31 +43%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $68 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 19m
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 19m
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 33m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 48¢ $12 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $12 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 48¢ $20 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $46 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 22h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $61 22h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 25¢ $31 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $25 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $24 22h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 2¢ $12 22h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 27h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 10¢ $3 39h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 10¢ $21 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $44 46h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $35 47h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 6¢ $35 47h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $505 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $469 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $175 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $41 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $12 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $150 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.75 · official $125.75 (match) · 59 history records