Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F7 0xf7e3…22cb sports 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,019 (-9%) realized −$10,499 · open −$1,520
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%60W / 73L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,039per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$2,393est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,278
7 days+$366
14 days−$1,920
30 days−$10,359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$15,577
other 2% +$1,081
world 1% −$26
crypto 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -14.5% -22.6% 38% 38% -8.1%
≤30d 42 -20.1% -27.8% 38% 38% -21.6%
≤90d 133 -9.0% -17.6% 45% 44% -18.3%
all 133 -9.0% -17.6% 45% 44% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 44% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 41% -26.1%
15% -32.7% 38% -33.2%
20% -39.3% 31% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$1,314) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$822 vs −$853 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$10,499
Unrealized−$1,520
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses60 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$2,393
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage68d
Avg bet$1,039
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner FURIA 48¢ 0¢ $1,522 $2 −$1,520 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $948 −$932 -98%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $999 −$48 -5%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,207 −$1,200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,053 +$1,151 +109%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $660 −$249 -38%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $2,015 +$1,082 +54%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $4,864 +$4,220 +87%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $1,984 −$1,980 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,307 −$1,290 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,203 +$1,081 +49%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,693 +$1,454 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2,054 −$2,027 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2,956 −$896 -30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,314 −$1,314 -100%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $118 −$118 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,471 −$1,445 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,470 −$1,469 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $661 −$661 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $424 +$403 +95%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,991 +$2,317 +116%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,422 −$410 -29%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $1,467 +$1,888 +129%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $536 +$509 +95%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 29 $403 +$130 +32%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1,470 +$951 +65%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5 May 26 $4,985 +$4,249 +85%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $4,522 −$4,450 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 25 $2,472 +$1,046 +42%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 25 $2,101 +$1,365 +65%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $4,102 +$2,977 +73%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 24 $2,552 −$2,551 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $7,507 −$4,219 -56%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $22 −$1 -3%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner May 23 $1,466 −$1,466 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $1,499 −$1,498 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 23 $413 −$404 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $1,150 −$736 -64%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 23 $2,396 −$1,245 -52%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $1,090 −$1,076 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 23 $757 +$334 +44%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 4 Winner May 23 $366 −$361 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 23 $6,749 −$3,471 -51%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $2,828 +$1,313 +46%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $2,703 −$2,652 -98%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5) May 21 $2,369 −$2,329 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 21 $2,062 +$302 +15%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $1,537 −$1,511 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner May 21 $993 −$974 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN - Map 1 Winner May 21 $487 −$480 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $201 +$89 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 48¢ $1,546 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 44¢ $948 7h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 50¢ $951 7h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 51¢ $3 10h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 51¢ $996 10h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 80¢ $1,207 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $2 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $1,051 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 41¢ $411 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $660 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $3,097 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $590 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $32 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $9 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $93 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $42 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $18 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $47 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $107 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $39 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $36 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $93 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $159 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 65¢ $37 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.59 · official $15.85 · 616 history records