Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:11:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F7 0xf7df…f627 other 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$14
politics 33% −$11
sports 11% −$22
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
culture 2% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 83 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 128 -5.4% -14.4% 8% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 6% -9.7%
10% -22.6% 6% -18.3%
15% -30.1% 5% -26.2%
20% -36.9% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×8.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage134d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $394 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $252 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $271 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $37 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $39 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $441 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 25 $411 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $212 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $225 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $333 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $227 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $368 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 17 $163 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $226 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $224 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $448 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 13 $232 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $222 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $197 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $221 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $190 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $187 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $196 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $229 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $189 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $411 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $202 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $197 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $180 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $232 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $400 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $233 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $436 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $167 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $200 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 5h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $30 15h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $30 36h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 36h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 39h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 39h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 43h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 47h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 12d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $19 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 15d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 16d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 16d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 23d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 23d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 23d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.99 · official $33.99 (match) · 371 history records