Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:24:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf7da…43d9 sports 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,951 (+5%) realized +$2,960 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%102W / 96L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$750est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days−$244
14 days−$2,396
30 days+$1,436
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,509
other 6% +$1,030
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -7.8% -16.6% 55% 55% -12.7%
≤30d 161 -5.8% -14.8% 50% 47% -6.0%
≤90d 188 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 48% -5.3%
all 198 -2.5% -11.8% 52% 48% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 48% -4.6%
10% -20.2% 41% -13.7%
15% -27.9% 33% -22.1%
20% -35.0% 24% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$120 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$2,960
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses102 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$750
Open positions1
Markets (closed)198 / 199
History coverage588d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Inner Circle Esports 61¢ 56¢ $116 $106 −$9 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $117 +$33 +28%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 26 $109 +$42 +39%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $124 +$54 +44%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear To Jun 25 $40 −$27 -69%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $57 +$83 +145%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 24 $28 −$12 -43%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $124 −$122 -99%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $83 −$83 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $133 +$116 +87%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $70 +$13 +18%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $152 −$81 -53%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $182 +$58 +32%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN Jun 23 $247 −$219 -89%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $199 +$129 +65%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $144 +$22 +16%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $207 −$102 -49%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $186 −$186 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $326 +$204 +63%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $234 −$116 -50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $191 +$109 +57%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 19 $385 +$115 +30%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $275 −$275 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $227 +$122 +54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $297 −$219 -74%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $310 +$131 +42%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $52 −$2 -3%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $192 +$57 +30%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $179 +$121 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $456 −$196 -43%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $247 +$138 +56%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $65 −$17 -26%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $166 −$143 -86%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $341 −$171 -50%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $101 +$129 +127%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $153 +$147 +96%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $512 +$291 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $372 +$228 +61%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P Jun 15 $197 −$126 -64%
Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs Aurora Young Blood (BO3) - CIS LAN Champio Jun 15 $110 −$64 -58%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs 2007 (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions Jun 15 $200 −$121 -60%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - BC Game Masters E Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs. Nigma Galaxy Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs. PARIVISION Jun 15 $123 −$86 -70%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $87 −$87 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - European Pro Leag Jun 15 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Jun 15 $1,138 +$325 +28%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoff Jun 15 $192 −$152 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 61¢ $117 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs SELL Acend 100¢ $152 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 72¢ $85 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 72¢ $24 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner BUY Acend 78¢ $117 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Sharks 69¢ $48 20h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 62¢ $9 23h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 62¢ $6 23h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 62¢ $7 23h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 62¢ $9 23h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 62¢ $21 23h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 62¢ $29 23h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 62¢ $43 23h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear To SELL Team Novaq 25¢ $2 26h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear To SELL Team Novaq 25¢ $6 26h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear To SELL Team Novaq 25¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear To SELL Team Novaq 28¢ $2 26h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear To BUY Team Novaq 44¢ $5 27h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear To BUY Team Novaq 44¢ $8 27h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear To BUY Team Novaq 44¢ $11 27h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear To BUY Team Novaq 44¢ $11 27h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear To BUY Team Novaq 28¢ $2 27h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear To BUY Team Novaq 30¢ $3 27h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Team Novaq 40¢ $12 44h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Team Novaq 40¢ $2 44h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Team Novaq 40¢ $2 44h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Team Novaq 40¢ $3 44h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Team Novaq 40¢ $2 44h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Team Novaq 40¢ $3 44h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Team Novaq 40¢ $2 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.40 · official $106.40 (match) · 1196 history records