Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7d9…cc54 sports 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized −$38 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate58%28W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day46.7pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$168
other 28% −$469
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -13.7% -21.9% 58% 33% -17.9%
≤30d 48 -13.7% -21.9% 58% 33% -17.9%
≤90d 48 -13.7% -21.9% 58% 33% -17.9%
all 48 -13.7% -21.9% 58% 33% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 33% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 17% -25.8%
15% -36.2% 6% -33.0%
20% -42.4% 6% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$78 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses28 / 20
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage3d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day46.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) Uzbekistan 91¢ 90¢ $182 $181 −$1 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Over 6¢ 6¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $210 +$11 +5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $242 +$53 +22%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $657 −$657 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $261 +$9 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $469 +$83 +18%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $180 −$64 -36%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $500 +$9 +2%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $103 −$19 -18%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $300 +$6 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $405 +$95 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $4 +$16 +388%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $465 −$461 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,131 +$114 +10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $108 +$11 +10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $234 +$66 +28%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $107 +$22 +20%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $234 +$65 +28%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $57 +$6 +10%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $95 +$5 +5%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $268 +$29 +11%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $52 +$11 +21%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $42 +$8 +19%
Egypt to win the second half? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $88 +$5 +6%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $16 +$4 +27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $97 +$17 +18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Second half draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Netherlands to win the second half? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $38 +$68 +180%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) BUY Uzbekistan 91¢ $182 27m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $12 28m
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 95¢ $210 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $125 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $85 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 83¢ $73 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 83¢ $122 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 83¢ $13 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $2 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $1 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 85¢ $85 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $27 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $7 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $48 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $156 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 89¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 89¢ $218 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 91¢ $76 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 91¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 91¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 91¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 91¢ $101 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $552 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $261 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 59¢ $116 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 90¢ $4 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 90¢ $45 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 90¢ $130 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 84¢ $8 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.00 · official $192.00 (match) · 172 history records