Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F7 0xf7d6…828f world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%28W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$17
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$25
other 31% +$1
sports 14% $0
politics 14% $0
culture 1% −$22
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +11.7% +1.0% 33% 22% -8.2%
≤30d 27 +3.8% -6.1% 44% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 39 +2.7% -7.1% 38% 5% -9.2%
all 76 +0.6% -9.0% 37% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.7% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses28 / 48
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage322d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $129 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $110 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $243 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 -9%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $83 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $289 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $221 −$2 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $12 +$9 +77%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $23 +$8 +37%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $171 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $109 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $107 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $109 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $178 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $182 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $172 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $103 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $201 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $168 −$6 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $178 +$9 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $84 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $2 $0 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $87 −$5 -5%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $400 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $163 +$2 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $722 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $774 −$2 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $137 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $323 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $222 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $19 $0 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $710 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $159 +$3 +2%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 04 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 23 $40 −$22 -55%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Sep 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 11 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $86 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $43 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $129 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $3 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $4 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $100 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $3 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $48 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $56 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $6 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $97 25h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 25h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $73 25h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $45 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $94 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $95 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $83 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $70 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $76 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $16 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $49 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 303 history records