Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7d4…ba47 other 246 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 232L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$20
14 days−$27
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$42
sports 25% −$19
politics 9% −$9
culture 6% −$6
economics 4% −$6
world 4% −$3
crypto 3% −$3
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 245 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)245 / 246
History coverage134d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $234 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $310 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $128 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $839 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $375 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $407 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $306 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $135 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $249 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $477 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $361 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $450 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $284 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $282 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $232 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $357 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $211 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $152 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $294 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $413 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $595 −$2 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $409 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $496 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $69 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 05 $69 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $454 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $179 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $403 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 1h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 2h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 3h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 5h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 7h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $61 21h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $61 23h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 24h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 25h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 27h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 30h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $61 43h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 44h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 45h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 46h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $61 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $62 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $62 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $62 3d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.30 · official $60.30 (match) · 1397 history records