Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:37:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F7 0xf7cc…cb5d other 5 markets active 1d ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$137 (+28%) realized +$9 · open +$128
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$467now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$183
tech 8% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-51.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -46.8% -51.9% 33% 33% -0.2%
≤30d 3 -46.8% -51.9% 33% 33% -0.2%
≤90d 3 -46.8% -51.9% 33% 33% -0.2%
all 3 -46.8% -51.9% 33% 33% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.9% 33% -0.2%
10% -56.5% 33% -9.8%
15% -60.7% 33% -18.5%
20% -64.6% 33% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$23 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$467
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$128
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage3d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 72¢ 83¢ $273 $314 +$42 (+15%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 29¢ 66¢ $67 $153 +$86 (+129%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 +$60 +60%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 19 $42 −$40 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 72¢ $276 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 29¢ $69 3d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 4d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $467.27 · official $467.27 (match) · 8 history records