Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7cc…079e other 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$139 (-8%) realized −$121 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate28%24W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$481
7 days−$124
14 days−$195
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$28
sports 40% −$57
crypto 14% −$114
world 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -6.9% -15.8% 27% 22% -19.0%
≤30d 86 -6.3% -15.2% 28% 22% -19.9%
≤90d 86 -6.3% -15.2% 28% 22% -19.9%
all 86 -6.3% -15.2% 28% 22% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 22% -19.9%
10% -23.3% 20% -27.6%
15% -30.7% 19% -34.6%
20% -37.5% 16% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late -74% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$13 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$121
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses24 / 62
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage13d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Over 60¢ 40¢ $55 $37 −$18 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $45 +$10 +22%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $36 −$36 -99%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$4 +188%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -67%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $55 +$58 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $55 16m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $55 20m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $45 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $36 2h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 11h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $55 28h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 36h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 36h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 36h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 36h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.00 · official $40.66 · 201 history records