Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:07:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

F7 0xf7cc…5704 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$99 (-21%) realized −$114 · open +$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate53%8W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day2.8pace

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$73

7 days+$73

14 days−$70

30 days−$70

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)-15.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-0.2%	-9.7%	64%	64%	+21.8%
≤30d	15	-7.0%	-15.8%	53%	53%	-26.5%
≤90d	15	-7.0%	-15.8%	53%	53%	-26.5%
all	15	-7.0%	-15.8%	53%	53%	-26.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.8%	53%	-26.5%
10%	-23.9%	47%	-33.5%
15%	-31.2%	40%	-40.0%
20%	-38.0%	27%	-45.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 63% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +1% → late -14% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$25 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.6 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$115

Realized−$114

Unrealized+$15

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses8 / 7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 16

History coverage8d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day2.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	87¢	100¢	$100	$115	+$15 (+15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$51	+$36	+70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$51	+$30	+60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Jun 19	$5	+$2	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Jun 19	$4	−$2	-50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Jun 19	$11	−$9	-87%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$4	−$4	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Jun 18	$10	+$5	+49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Jun 18	$11	+$8	+74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Jun 18	$10	+$1	+13%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$50	+$12	+23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$29	−$28	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Jun 11	$105	−$100	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Jun 11	$5	+$10	+198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Jun 11	$25	−$25	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	87¢	$100	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$5	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	SELL Up	12¢	$2	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$4	7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	SELL Up	3¢	$1	9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$5	9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	SELL Up	4¢	$1	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$11	23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$4	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	SELL Up	47¢	$16	27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$10	27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	SELL Down	31¢	$18	27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	BUY Down	16¢	$11	27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	SELL Up	36¢	$12	27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$10	27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	99¢	$62	27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	80¢	$50	28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$29	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$105	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$5	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$25	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.89 · official $114.89 (match) · 27 history records