Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:22:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7c6…6142 world 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$6
other 41% +$10
sports 16% +$1
politics 1% −$14
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 25 +1.1% -8.5% 32% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 39 -0.3% -9.8% 31% 5% -9.6%
all 52 -3.3% -12.5% 38% 10% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 10% -9.8%
10% -20.9% 8% -18.5%
15% -28.5% 6% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 32
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage534d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 67¢ 68¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $4 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $26 +$1 +3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $33 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $32 −$2 -7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $72 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $100 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $70 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $48 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $101 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $49 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $19 +$3 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $4 $0 -8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $1 $0 +27%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $33 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $38 −$5 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $10 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $15 −$2 -14%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $40 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $146 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $277 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $326 +$4 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $105 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $297 +$1 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $281 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $7 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $55 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $322 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Wofford vs. Tennessee Mar 21 $6 $0 +5%
Oakland vs. IUPUI Mar 04 $4 +$2 +45%
Grand Canyon vs. Tarleton Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Mungo vs. MINH Jan 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 23 $3 −$1 -34%
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -93%
Oilers vs. Bruins Jan 08 $3 +$2 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $34 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $31 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $31 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $31 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $31 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $34 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $34 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $18 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $15 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $11 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $24 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $30 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $30 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $29 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $34 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $33 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.94 · official $34.94 (match) · 194 history records