Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:55:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

F7 0xf7c4…affa sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$2,894 (+13%) realized +$4,850 · open −$1,956

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown71%max

Avg bet$2,721per market

Trades / day9.4pace

Fees−$131est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$4,445now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-19.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-10.9%	-19.4%	50%	50%	+3.2%
≤30d	6	-10.9%	-19.4%	50%	50%	+3.2%
≤90d	6	-10.9%	-19.4%	50%	50%	+3.2%
all	6	-10.9%	-19.4%	50%	50%	+3.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.4 tr/day

realistic slip~14%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-19.4%	50%	+3.2%
10% ← realistic here	-27.1%	50%	-6.7%
15%	-34.1%	50%	-15.7%
20%	-40.6%	33%	-24.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2,321 vs −$1,633 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.42 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$4,445

Realized+$4,850

Unrealized−$1,956

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$131

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$2,721

Trades / day9.4

Drawdown71%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	54¢	38¢	$6,401	$4,445	−$1,956 (-31%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$2,025	−$2,000	-99%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score	Jun 27	$3,051	+$3,925	+129%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$1,775	+$1,247	+70%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$912	−$900	-99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$2,032	−$2,000	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$4,988	+$1,790	+36%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	54¢	$1,420	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	54¢	$5,069	1h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5	BUY Over	59¢	$1,012	4h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5	BUY Over	58¢	$1,013	4h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. England: Englan	BUY	29¢	$496	4h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	43¢	$3,051	22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$1,013	24h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5	BUY Over	54¢	$912	25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$762	25h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	47¢	$2,032	25h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	73¢	$4,988	29h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,445.10 · official $4,682.17 · 14 history records