Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:41:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F7 0xf7c2…9b8d sports 1203 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 121d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$84,699 (+6%) realized +$84,607 · open +$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%542W / 683L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$1,102per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$13,632est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,178
7 days+$23,473
14 days+$26,541
30 days+$45,089
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$113,311
other 4% −$12,653
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -34.2% -40.4% 32% 28% +25.3%
≤30d 259 -9.4% -18.0% 41% 38% +5.7%
≤90d 905 -1.9% -11.2% 44% 42% -3.0%
all 1225 -1.1% -10.5% 44% 43% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 43% -3.6%
10% -19.1% 43% -12.8%
15% ← realistic here -26.9% 41% -21.2%
20% -34.1% 37% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,439) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,270 vs −$881 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$2,246
Realized+$84,607
Unrealized+$92
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses542 / 683
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$13,632
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1225 / 1203
History coverage122d ⚠
Avg bet$1,102
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 60¢ 62¢ $1,833 $1,909 +$76 (+4%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 71¢ 74¢ $315 $330 +$16 (+5%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Team Falcons 56¢ 57¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Coalesce vs Twisted Saints Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $92 −$92 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $345 −$345 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Eastern Europe Cl Jun 19 $58 −$58 -100%
Valorant: UNIWAY vs Bonk - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $192 −$192 -100%
LoL: HMBLE vs EKO Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $56 −$56 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs ROSSMANN Centaurs (BO1) - Prime League 1st D Jun 19 $88 −$88 -100%
Valorant: ALT F4 vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South Group Stage Jun 19 $96 −$96 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bad Luck vs Game Hunters - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $146 −$146 -100%
LoL: 4 SWINES & A BUM vs Ruddy Esports (BO1) - NLC Regular Season Jun 19 $222 −$222 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA (+2.5) Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Team Secret Whales - Game 4 Winn Jun 19 $85 −$85 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Virginia Cavaliers Jun 19 $285 −$285 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $599 −$599 -100%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $444 −$444 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs NIP - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $687 −$687 -100%
AHL: Cleveland Monsters vs. Grand Rapids Griffins Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 19 $671 −$671 -100%
LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs S2G Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $333 −$333 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Kickoff Play Jun 19 $233 −$233 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,299 −$1,299 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,111 −$1,111 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5) Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $111 −$111 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $259 −$259 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs NIP (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jun 19 $170 −$170 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jun 19 $355 −$355 -100%
LoL: SPAXFAMILY vs EXILE esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $111 −$111 -100%
LoL: Dark Passage vs SU Esports (BO3) - TCL Playoffs Jun 19 $109 −$109 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $333 −$333 -100%
Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs ENJOY - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs 33 (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 Group St Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 19 $555 −$555 -100%
Dota 2: Team Public vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
William & Mary Tribe vs. Northeastern Huskies Jun 19 $222 −$222 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 3? Jun 19 $93 −$93 -100%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs BBL Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $755 −$755 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs REKONIX (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 19 $222 −$222 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $121 −$121 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? Jun 19 $96 −$96 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 19 $555 −$555 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Jun 19 $355 −$355 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs Jun 19 $407 −$407 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs GamerLegion (BO3) - RES Showdown Spring Playoff Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $222 −$222 -100%
Valorant: Coalesce vs Twisted Saints Esports (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST G Jun 19 $91 −$91 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jun 19 $355 −$355 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $333 −$333 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $1,855 1h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $6 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $2 17h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $37 17h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $37 17h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $37 17h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $37 17h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $37 17h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $619 17h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY ONSIDE GAMING 67¢ $4 18h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY ONSIDE GAMING 67¢ $215 18h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $13 18h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $5 18h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $2 18h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $14 18h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $49 18h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 49¢ $29 18h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 49¢ $96 18h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 49¢ $1 18h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 52¢ $19 18h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 53¢ $384 19h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $16 20h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $17 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $5 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $4 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $71 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $52 23h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $2 23h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $2 23h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,245.88 · official $2,245.88 (match) · 3500 history records