Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7c1…2b43 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$98 (-13%) realized −$117 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$66
14 days−$82
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$115
sports 44% +$52
crypto 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +19.2% +7.8% 83% 83% +15.0%
≤30d 14 -27.7% -34.6% 43% 43% -24.2%
≤90d 14 -27.7% -34.6% 43% 43% -24.2%
all 14 -27.7% -34.6% 43% 43% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.6% 43% -24.2%
10% -40.9% 43% -31.5%
15% -46.6% 29% -38.1%
20% -51.8% 14% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$23 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)14 / 20
History coverage8d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 40¢ 69¢ $58 $99 +$41 (+72%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $80 $67 −$13 (-16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 +$42 +83%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $26 +$9 +37%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $81 +$20 +24%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $51 −$33 -64%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $26 +$12 +46%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $60 +$16 +26%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$19 -37%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $59 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 9h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 15¢ $45 12h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 44¢ $35 25h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $26 26h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 26h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $40 27h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 36¢ $17 27h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 73¢ $36 28h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 28h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 81¢ $40 28h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 49¢ $15 28h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 49¢ $2 28h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 49¢ $5 28h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 49¢ $16 28h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $26 29h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 AND Portu BUY 34¢ $25 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 79¢ $60 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $21 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $26 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $26 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 7d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.66 · official $236.71 (match) · 46 history records