Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:03:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7c0…a38c other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$45 (-10%) realized −$34 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%11W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$28
sports 16% −$5
world 4% −$9
crypto 4% −$7
tech 3% +$2
weather 2% −$7
culture 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -54.3% -58.6% 40% 20% -45.5%
≤90d 23 -63.8% -67.2% 26% 17% -59.2%
all 37 -0.4% -9.8% 30% 24% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 24% -29.9%
10% -18.5% 11% -36.6%
15% -26.3% 11% -42.7%
20% -33.6% 11% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +83% → late -79% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses11 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)37 / 43
History coverage124d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+12%)
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 2.5 Over 12¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Evil Morty appear in Rick and Morty: Season 9? May 29 $5 $0 +8%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Apr 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will ChrisMD score a goal in the 2026 Sidemen Charity Match? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Apr 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15? Apr 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will MrBeast's latest video get 16–18 million views on day 1? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Miniminter score a goal in the 2026 Sidemen Charity Match? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Marlon score a goal in the 2026 Sidemen Charity Match? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on Ma Apr 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Apr 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 16, 2026? Apr 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will ItalianBach score a goal in the 2026 Sidemen Charity Match? Apr 21 $3 +$2 +65%
Will Jynxzi score a goal in the 2026 Sidemen Charity Match? Apr 21 $5 $0 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 06 $15 +$2 +14%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Mar 01 $4 −$4 -100%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 01 $4 −$1 -34%
Will Artemis II launch by March 31? Mar 01 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 27 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 27 $6 −$2 -28%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 27 $8 −$1 -16%
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by March 31? Feb 27 $5 −$2 -32%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37.5 and 38.0 million views on d Feb 27 $2 +$29 +1442%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37.0 and 37.5 million views on d Feb 26 $3 +$4 +150%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 Feb 25 $5 +$11 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Feb 22 $10 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 1h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $21 1h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams BUY 39¢ $20 1h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 32¢ $20 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 12d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 12d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 27d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 27d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 37d
Will Evil Morty appear in Rick and Morty: Season 9? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 37d
Will ItalianBach score a goal in the 2026 Sidemen Charity Match? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 70d
Will ChrisMD score a goal in the 2026 Sidemen Charity Match? BUY No 29¢ $5 70d
Will Miniminter score a goal in the 2026 Sidemen Charity Match? BUY No 16¢ $5 70d
Will Marlon score a goal in the 2026 Sidemen Charity Match? BUY No 57¢ $5 70d
Will Jynxzi score a goal in the 2026 Sidemen Charity Match? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 70d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 70d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $11 70d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 81d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 81d
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 16, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $6 102d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY No 83¢ $5 109d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 113d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 116d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 116d
Will Artemis II launch by March 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 116d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $8 117d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 117d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 88¢ $15 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.20 · official $206.42 · 187 history records