Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:37:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7be…d768 crypto 302 markets active 3d ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$35 (-4%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate78%236W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day41.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$53
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -2.3% -11.6% 84% 8% -13.1%
≤30d 302 -6.3% -15.3% 78% 4% -14.5%
≤90d 302 -6.3% -15.3% 78% 4% -14.5%
all 302 -6.3% -15.3% 78% 4% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 4% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 3% -22.7%
15% -30.8% 1% -30.1%
20% -37.6% 1% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses236 / 66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)302 / 302
History coverage18d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 302 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.00 (match) · 790 history records