Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F7 0xf7ba…de48 politics 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$697per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 133d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% −$20
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 9 -6.0% -14.9% 11% 11% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 11% -10.0%
10% -23.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -30.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -37.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage133d
Avg bet$697
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 98¢ $306 $308 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $210 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $3 −$2 -50%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 24 $16 +$2 +11%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 24 $1,261 −$14 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $1,431 −$6 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $1,564 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 7h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 7h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 8h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 11h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 12h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 13h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 13h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $292 111d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $1,515 111d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $17 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $195 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $195 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $195 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $195 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $35 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $195 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $195 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $195 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $195 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $49 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $30 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $33 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $43 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $32 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $59 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $29 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $1 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $53 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $40 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.38 · official $308.38 (match) · 181 history records