Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7b9…ad8f crypto 631 markets active 3h ago coverage 94d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,219 (-5%) realized −$14,219 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate93%585W / 46L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$476per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Fees−$290est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$3,764
crypto 31% +$2,687
other 24% +$359
world 2% +$289
politics 1% +$210
weather 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +1.5% -8.2% 94% 11% -9.9%
≤30d 181 -1.5% -10.9% 91% 15% -12.9%
≤90d 604 +0.3% -9.3% 92% 17% -9.8%
all 631 +0.4% -9.2% 93% 16% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 16% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 5% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$884) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$403 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14,219
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses585 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$290
Open positions0
Markets (closed)631 / 631
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$476
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 631 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $160 +$8 +5%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 17 $144 +$16 +11%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $132 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $123 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $82 +$23 +28%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $162 −$80 -49%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $157 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $147 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $154 +$2 +2%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $151 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $148 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $145 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $132 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $134 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $131 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $129 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $71 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $125 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $123 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $121 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $118 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $116 +$2 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $107 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $105 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $94 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $94 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $93 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $91 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $89 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $87 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $86 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $84 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $82 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $81 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $79 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $78 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $74 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $71 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $70 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $68 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $67 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $66 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $64 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $63 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 95¢ $160 3h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco SELL Monaco 100¢ $160 3h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 90¢ $105 4h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 90¢ $39 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $144 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $132 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $111 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $123 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $122 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $23 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $37 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $82 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $112 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 6h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $161 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records