Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:39:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F7 0xf7b8…bfcb politics 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$1
other 27% $0
sports 13% $0
world 7% $0
economics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage102d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $101 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $101 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $101 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 14 $101 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $101 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $103 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $103 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $103 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $103 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $103 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $103 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $103 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $103 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $103 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $101 1h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $19 14h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $82 14h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $101 19d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $101 20d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $101 27d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 28d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $101 37d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $101 38d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $101 42d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $101 43d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $101 44d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 45d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $102 69d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $103 70d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $103 73d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $103 73d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $103 75d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $103 76d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $103 79d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $103 80d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 84d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 84d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 88d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 88d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $103 96d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $103 97d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $103 98d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $103 98d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $103 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records