Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:26:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7b8…d8ce weather 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$156 (-13%) realized −$156 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%29W / 43L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$156
7 days+$80
14 days+$43
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 64% −$54
sports 16% +$110
other 8% +$27
crypto 6% −$14
politics 4% −$6
tech 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -18.3% -26.1% 34% 28% +3.1%
≤30d 72 -27.2% -34.2% 40% 36% -5.9%
≤90d 72 -27.2% -34.2% 40% 36% -5.9%
all 72 -27.2% -34.2% 40% 36% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 36% -5.9%
10% -40.5% 31% -14.9%
15% -46.2% 17% -23.1%
20% -51.5% 12% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses29 / 43
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)72 / 77
History coverage14d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 24? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 24? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 23? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 23? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 −$6 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $6 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 23 $33 −$5 -14%
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 23 $8 −$2 -29%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $61 −$1 -2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe Jun 21 $46 +$156 +338%
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 21 $45 −$6 -14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $37 +$64 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $30 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $16 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 −$3 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 +$4 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$2 +11%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $38 +$15 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 +$4 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 +$4 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$1 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $11 +$10 +97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$10 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $36 +$11 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 49¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 49¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 49¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 49¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 24? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 24? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 24? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 54¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? SELL No 83¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 4h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 88¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 56¢ $17 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 23? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 23? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 57¢ $17 7h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 57¢ $11 7h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 57¢ $24 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 23? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 53¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? SELL Yes 38¢ $24 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.29 · official $7.07 (match) · 196 history records