Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:18:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7b3…4d47 weather 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$47 (-6%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 78% −$7
other 16% −$28
world 6% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +14.4% +3.5% 100% 100% +3.5%
≤30d 31 -13.0% -21.3% 52% 39% -15.2%
≤90d 31 -13.0% -21.3% 52% 39% -15.2%
all 31 -13.0% -21.3% 52% 39% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 39% -15.2%
10% -28.8% 29% -23.3%
15% -35.7% 26% -30.7%
20% -42.0% 19% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage29d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 2? No 67¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 3? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 3? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $22 +$3 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 3? Jun 03 $64 +$17 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 +$6 +177%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 3? Jun 03 $6 +$18 +285%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 03 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 03 $26 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 03 $20 +$20 +104%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 2? Jun 03 $13 +$13 +96%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on June 2? Jun 03 $6 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 3? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $254 +$18 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 2? Jun 02 $46 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 2? Jun 02 $38 −$37 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 2? Jun 02 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 3? Jun 02 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -86%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $17 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 02 $16 +$6 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 01 $4 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 01 $52 +$26 +49%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $28 −$27 -100%
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $8 +$6 +75%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $19 −$15 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $25 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $7 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 3? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 3? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 3? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 12d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 2? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 3? BUY No 78¢ $47 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 3? BUY No 77¢ $16 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 3? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 2? BUY No 52¢ $11 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 2? BUY No 52¢ $5 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 2? BUY No 52¢ $4 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 2? BUY No 52¢ $2 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 2? BUY No 52¢ $4 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 2? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 2? BUY No 60¢ $0 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 2? BUY No 60¢ $3 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 2? BUY No 60¢ $5 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 2? BUY No 60¢ $3 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 2? BUY No 92¢ $28 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 2? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 3? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 2? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 2? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 2? BUY Yes 89¢ $18 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 2? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.45 · official $9.45 (match) · 101 history records