Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F7 0xf7b3…eeb2 world 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,234 (+2%) realized +$2,503 · open −$269
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate87%105W / 16L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$910per market
Trades / day41.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$17,001now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$4,449
finance 24% +$2,623
other 17% +$1,693
politics 4% +$781
economics 2% +$1,689
tech 1% +$116
sports 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +9.5% -0.9% 87% 47% +1.0%
≤30d 47 +8.6% -1.8% 91% 40% +0.3%
≤90d 121 +25.9% +13.9% 87% 36% +1.4%
all 121 +25.9% +13.9% 87% 36% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.9% 36% +1.4%
10% +3.0% 19% -8.3%
15% ← realistic here -6.9% 12% -17.1%
20% -16.1% 8% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$1,160) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +47% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
15.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$256 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.24 per $1 lost it wins $4.24
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$17,001
Realized+$2,503
Unrealized−$269
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses105 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)121 / 136
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$910
Trades / day41.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 88¢ 96¢ $3,122 $3,398 +$276 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $2,181 $2,365 +$184 (+8%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 69¢ 74¢ $2,065 $2,228 +$163 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $2,483 $1,914 −$569 (-23%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $1,574 $1,576 +$2 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $1,586 $1,573 −$13 (-1%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 86¢ 85¢ $1,025 $1,015 −$10 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $767 $605 −$162 (-21%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 88¢ 92¢ $491 $513 +$22 (+4%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 72¢ 84¢ $351 $413 +$62 (+18%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 86¢ $343 $394 +$51 (+15%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 79¢ 84¢ $344 $369 +$25 (+7%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 75¢ 88¢ $224 $262 +$38 (+17%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? No 85¢ 91¢ $205 $218 +$14 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $508 $158 −$350 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $617 −$276 -45%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $191 +$9 +5%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $171 +$29 +17%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $542 +$116 +21%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 20 $1,797 +$194 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $768 +$31 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 17 $1,865 +$168 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 17 $459 +$45 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $2,486 +$328 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 17 $1,096 +$84 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1,236 −$196 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1,511 +$446 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $2,212 +$491 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $767 +$362 +47%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 15 $64 +$4 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $2,491 +$218 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $1,504 +$56 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 14 $335 +$7 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 14 $910 +$63 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $835 +$45 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1,366 −$121 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $568 +$63 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 13 $3,454 +$484 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $1,160 +$361 +31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $640 +$66 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $992 +$51 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,136 +$65 +6%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4,161 +$1,095 +26%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 10 $2,162 +$234 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 10 $2,039 +$196 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $190 +$10 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,024 +$56 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 06 $386 +$8 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,122 +$96 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $1,710 +$45 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 30 $188 +$12 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $1,318 +$54 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $1,387 +$47 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 28 $28 −$13 -46%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June? May 27 $175 +$25 +14%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 27 $261 +$31 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 27 $757 +$118 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 27 $81 +$20 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $399 +$68 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $79 +$21 +27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 25 $2,765 +$337 +12%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $935 +$36 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 22 $180 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 22 $2,202 +$130 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 18 $464 +$28 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 83¢ $3 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 83¢ $38 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 2h
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $22 4h
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $10 9h
US recession by end of 2026? SELL No 88¢ $88 10h
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $43 16h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $95 16h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 82¢ $28 16h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 82¢ $1 16h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $42 17h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 82¢ $8 17h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $8 19h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 19h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $1 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $169 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $24 20h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $86 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $85 21h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 94¢ $134 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $96 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 22h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 85¢ $85 25h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $172 26h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $93 26h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $196 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $193 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,000.70 · official $17,000.70 (match) · 3500 history records