Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:38:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7a6…c5e4 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate33%11W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% $0
other 13% $0
sports 8% −$2
crypto 4% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 +0.5% -9.0% 22% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 18 +0.5% -9.0% 22% 6% -9.4%
all 33 -2.6% -11.9% 33% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 6% -9.8%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses11 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage473d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $16 −$1 -6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $11 −$1 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $18 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $101 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Dec 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $2 $0 +8%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 18 $2 $0 +14%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Texas Tech win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 22 $14 −$2 -16%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $3 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $25 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $15 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $40 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $40 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $40 30h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 34h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 37h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 37h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $14 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $14 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $5 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $3 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $3 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $17 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $6 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $9 11d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records