Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F7 0xf7a6…aed7 sports 782 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$797 (+2%) realized +$797 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate77%601W / 181L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$225est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$249
14 days−$2,448
30 days−$944
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$647
other 27% −$450
weather 21% +$175
crypto 4% +$49
world 0% +$21
tech 0% +$7
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -2.7% -11.9% 78% 46% -13.6%
≤30d 268 -12.0% -20.4% 64% 40% -13.7%
≤90d 779 +0.2% -9.4% 77% 45% -8.7%
all 782 +0.2% -9.4% 77% 45% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 45% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 25% -17.4%
15% -26.0% 13% -25.4%
20% -33.2% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$31 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$797
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses601 / 181
Est. fees paid−$225
Open positions0
Markets (closed)782 / 782
History coverage95d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 782 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $53 +$4 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $220 +$38 +17%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $162 +$14 +9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $26 +$5 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $52 +$11 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $79 +$11 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $221 +$32 +14%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $182 −$47 -26%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $44 +$3 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $38 −$26 -68%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $72 +$19 +26%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $163 +$4 +3%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $70 +$3 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $194 +$23 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $36 +$3 +10%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $73 +$9 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$5 +20%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $179 +$13 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $223 +$21 +9%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $314 +$34 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $46 −$22 -49%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $43 −$43 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $45 +$7 +16%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$3 +13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $35 +$2 +6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $169 +$19 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $31 +$11 +34%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $57 +$5 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 +$9 +17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 +$3 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $62 +$4 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $215 +$11 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $35 +$5 +13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $26 +$6 +21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $26 +$9 +36%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $70 +$7 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 +$18 +36%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $8 +$22 +269%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $200 +$16 +8%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $54 −$4 -7%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $80 +$25 +32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $287 −$285 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$11 -74%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $29 +$7 +24%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $39 +$32 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $48 53m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 80¢ $21 53m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 69¢ $18 57m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $25 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $7 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $17 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $29 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $35 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 95¢ $74 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 95¢ $32 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $79 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $25 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $53 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 79¢ $14 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 79¢ $88 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 90¢ $31 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $25 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 76¢ $26 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 79¢ $1 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 77¢ $55 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $178 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $22 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $28 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 85¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 85¢ $8 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 85¢ $8 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 85¢ $42 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 85¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 85¢ $19 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2547 history records