Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7a2…c0c5 weather 338 markets active 4d ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,571 (+4%) realized +$1,571 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate64%216W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day112.6pace
Fees−$184est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% +$253
sports 29% −$548
tech 2% −$41
world 1% −$37
other 1% −$49
politics 0% −$16
culture 0% +$7
economics 0% −$7
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -13.1% -21.3% 53% 7% -32.4%
≤30d 330 -6.3% -15.2% 63% 13% -11.3%
≤90d 338 -0.0% -9.5% 64% 13% -10.7%
all 338 -0.0% -9.5% 64% 13% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 13% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 8% -19.2%
15% -26.1% 6% -27.0%
20% -33.3% 3% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$32 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,571
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses216 / 122
Est. fees paid−$184
Open positions0
Markets (closed)338 / 338
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$107
Trades / day112.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 338 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Jo Hart win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $25 −$4 -17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $35 $0 -1%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 14 $49 −$3 -6%
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 14 $1 $0 -25%
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -6%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 14 $2 $0 -23%
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Yuito Suzuki be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $16 −$14 -82%
Will The MongolZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $7 −$4 -54%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? Jun 14 $22 −$3 -13%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 14 $23 −$2 -11%
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $17 −$2 -13%
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 14 $17 −$13 -77%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 14 $20 +$6 +33%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 14 $295 −$28 -9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 14 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $257 −$257 -100%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Jo Hart win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? SELL No 12¢ $1 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL No 22¢ $1 3d
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? SELL No 33¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $4 3d
Will Yuito Suzuki be in Japan's Starting 11? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will The MongolZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? SELL No 9¢ $4 3d
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 33¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 65¢ $7 3d
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 38¢ $7 3d
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 3d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL No 43¢ $11 3d
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 57¢ $11 3d
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? SELL No 59¢ $12 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $13 3d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? SELL No 94¢ $13 3d
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 10¢ $4 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 96¢ $19 3d
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' SELL No 98¢ $20 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $25 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records