Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:58:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf79f…7cfe weather 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17 (-11%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate40%48W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$6
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 81% −$20
crypto 19% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -10.9% -19.4% 31% 31% -16.7%
≤30d 87 -11.4% -19.9% 38% 30% -22.1%
≤90d 119 -13.7% -21.9% 40% 29% -23.6%
all 119 -13.7% -21.9% 40% 29% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 29% -23.6%
10% -29.4% 26% -30.9%
15% -36.2% 21% -37.5%
20% -42.4% 17% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses48 / 71
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage57d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 3? Jun 02 $1 $0 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 9¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 24¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $3 25m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 37¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? SELL No 21¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 24¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 49¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 11¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 15¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 283 history records