Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf79c…94ea other 958 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$853 (-6%) realized −$853 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%372W / 572L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$370
14 days+$237
30 days−$717
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$1,244
crypto 29% −$229
sports 18% +$346
world 1% +$4
politics 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -9.2% -17.9% 30% 30% +12.6%
≤30d 279 -33.6% -39.9% 22% 22% -23.6%
≤90d 944 -16.2% -24.2% 39% 36% -17.6%
all 944 -16.2% -24.2% 39% 36% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 36% -17.6%
10% -31.4% 30% -25.5%
15% -38.0% 24% -32.7%
20% -44.1% 20% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$853
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses372 / 572
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions4
Markets (closed)944 / 958
History coverage79d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 944 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 42¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $56 +$50 +89%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $24 −$16 -64%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $28 −$27 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $102 +$116 +114%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $28 −$27 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 202 Jun 12 $36 +$79 +222%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $17 +$171 +982%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $106 +$98 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $26 −$18 -68%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +43%
Exact Score: Bolivia 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Bolivia 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Nigeria? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Nigeria? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $101 +$61 +60%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 11 $25 +$28 +110%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $11 +$9 +82%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Indonesia vs. Mozambique end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Iceland? Jun 10 $16 +$90 +550%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $6 +$11 +177%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $15 +$19 +124%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $17 +$31 +180%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$12 +238%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
RS Berkane vs. IR Tanger: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 21¢ $97 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $56 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $30 16h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 16h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Côte BUY 22¢ $26 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 26¢ $27 24h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY 33¢ $36 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND W BUY 5¢ $51 25h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 45¢ $36 30h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 30h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 30h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 33h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 33h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 39¢ $102 33h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06- BUY 7¢ $10 33h
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $25 2d
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $25 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 2d
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $28 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 20¢ $205 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 2d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $28 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $102 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 25¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.18 · official $130.18 · 2074 history records