Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F7 0xf79c…cb96 sports 239 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2914 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$4,104 (+3%) realized +$3,795 · open +$309
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate65%64W / 35L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$506per market
Trades / day2914.0pace
Fees−$665est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$35,310now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$2,992
sports 49% +$5,473
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2914 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+52.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +68.4% +52.4% 65% 47% +3.7%
≤30d 99 +68.4% +52.4% 65% 47% +3.7%
≤90d 99 +68.4% +52.4% 65% 47% +3.7%
all 99 +68.4% +52.4% 65% 47% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2914.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +52.4% 47% +3.7%
10% +37.8% 37% -6.3%
15% ← realistic here +24.5% 29% -15.3%
20% +12.3% 24% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +68% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$766) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +73% → late +64% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$108 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.22 per $1 lost it wins $3.22
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$35,310
Realized+$3,795
Unrealized+$309
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses64 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$665
Open positions147
Markets (closed)99 / 239
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$506
Trades / day2914.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 147 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? No 96¢ 95¢ $2,023 $2,018 −$5 (-0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,298 $1,295 −$4 (-0%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? No 92¢ 92¢ $1,147 $1,151 +$3 (+0%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay? No 97¢ 97¢ $1,132 $1,129 −$3 (-0%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Curaçao? No 98¢ 98¢ $925 $926 +$1 (+0%)
Spread: United States (-2.5) Australia 84¢ 84¢ $882 $887 +$5 (+1%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? No 97¢ 97¢ $804 $800 −$4 (-0%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Under 72¢ 72¢ $770 $764 −$5 (-1%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Curaçao? No 98¢ 98¢ $704 $707 +$3 (+0%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score No 50¢ 48¢ $686 $665 −$21 (-3%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? No 96¢ 96¢ $659 $657 −$2 (-0%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? No 89¢ 88¢ $662 $657 −$5 (-1%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ 100¢ $243 $629 +$386 (+159%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Côte dIvoire 92¢ 92¢ $598 $601 +$3 (+1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Scotland 71¢ 68¢ $604 $584 −$20 (-3%)
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? No 99¢ 99¢ $571 $572 +$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 90¢ 92¢ $539 $548 +$9 (+2%)
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Under 41¢ 40¢ $567 $545 −$22 (-4%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Germany 95¢ 95¢ $532 $530 −$2 (-0%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? No 98¢ 99¢ $529 $529 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 58¢ 56¢ $538 $524 −$14 (-3%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Paraguay 77¢ 76¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Haiti? No 99¢ 99¢ $497 $494 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Australia 65¢ 64¢ $490 $486 −$5 (-1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? No 93¢ 92¢ $482 $480 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $9 +$9 +97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $1,292 −$88 -7%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1,100 $0 -0%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $619 +$5 +1%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $239 +$111 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,148 −$48 -4%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $789 +$291 +37%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $114 +$97 +85%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $134 +$186 +138%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $377 +$77 +20%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,605 +$124 +8%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $22 +$159 +712%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2,054 −$17 -1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1,767 −$16 -1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $595 −$60 -10%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 19 $1,130 +$33 +3%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $945 −$99 -10%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $36 +$64 +178%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Second half draw? Jun 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,288 +$244 +19%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $304 +$427 +140%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $487 −$87 -18%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $100 −$45 -44%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 19 $1,205 +$351 +29%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $877 +$251 +29%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $380 +$101 +27%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $378 +$105 +28%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $273 +$101 +37%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $288 +$25 +9%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1,025 +$84 +8%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $293 +$193 +66%
Korea Republic to win the second half? Jun 19 $341 +$107 +32%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,301 +$39 +3%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $152 +$36 +24%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $684 +$70 +10%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $131 +$770 +588%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $90 +$210 +233%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $468 +$495 +106%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $705 −$81 -12%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $117 +$676 +580%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $712 +$126 +18%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $477 −$79 -17%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $1,468 +$34 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,766 −$38 -2%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 19 $260 +$181 +70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $677 +$109 +16%
Spread: Mexico (-3.5) Jun 19 $615 +$5 +1%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,942 +$346 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $300 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? SELL No 99¢ $59 2m
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 4m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? SELL No 99¢ $137 10m
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 15m
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 22m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? SELL No 99¢ $5 23m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? SELL No 99¢ $1 26m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? SELL No 99¢ $439 26m
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Australia? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 35m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? SELL No 99¢ $90 37m
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Australia? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 38m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 58m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY No 96¢ $840 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 88¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 88¢ $64 1h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $132 1h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 12¢ $40 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 13¢ $43 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $182 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $145 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35,310.05 · official $35,310.25 (match) · 3500 history records