Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F7 0xf799…3040 sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$358 (-10%) realized −$1,562 · open +$1,204
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%6W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$2,454now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,250
7 days−$1,250
14 days−$1,250
30 days−$1,250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$884
other 37% −$1,268
crypto 1% −$20
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-48.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 32 -43.1% -48.5% 19% 19% -82.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.5% 19% -82.2%
10% -53.5% 19% -83.9%
15% -58.0% 12% -85.4%
20% -62.1% 9% -86.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$68 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$2,454
Realized−$1,562
Unrealized+$1,204
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses6 / 26
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage140d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 51¢ 100¢ $1,250 $2,454 +$1,204 (+96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Shara Magomedov win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $1,269 −$1,250 -98%
Counter-Strike: Favbet vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 Gr Feb 11 $139 −$139 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-KRÜ Esports vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame Feb 11 $113 +$26 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs OG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier P Feb 11 $10 −$3 -29%
Sevilla FC vs. Girona FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 08 $64 −$64 -100%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 08 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dustin Jacoby vs. Julius Walker (Light Heavyweight, M Feb 08 $20 +$14 +72%
Will Mario Bautista win by KO or TKO? Feb 08 $17 −$17 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jailton Almeida win by KO or TKO? Feb 08 $10 −$10 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Feb 08 $20 −$20 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Feb 08 $40 −$40 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bruna Brasil vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweight, P Feb 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Javid Basharat win by KO or TKO? Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Wang Cong win by KO or TKO? Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Muin Gafurov vs. Jakub Wiklacz (Bantamweight, Prelims Feb 07 $40 −$40 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Klaudia Sygula (Women's Bantam Feb 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $10 +$8 +82%
Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $10 +$81 +808%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 07 $50 +$20 +41%
FC Barcelona vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Burnley FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 07 $20 +$4 +22%
Arsenal FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5 Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 51¢ $1,268 1h
Will Shara Magomedov win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,269 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY 21¢ $460 2h
Counter-Strike: Favbet vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 Gr BUY los kogutos 64¢ $139 136d
Counter-Strike: ex-KRÜ Esports vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame SELL ex-KRÜ Esports 100¢ $139 136d
Counter-Strike: ex-KRÜ Esports vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY ex-KRÜ Esports 81¢ $113 136d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $10 136d
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs OG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier P SELL OG 5¢ $7 136d
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs OG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier P BUY OG 7¢ $10 136d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $10 136d
Sevilla FC vs. Girona FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $64 139d
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 139d
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 139d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 139d
Will Mario Bautista win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 139d
Government shutdown on Saturday? SELL No 35¢ $10 139d
Will Jailton Almeida win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 139d
UFC Fight Night: Dustin Jacoby vs. Julius Walker (Light Heavyweight, M BUY Jacoby 58¢ $20 139d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 57¢ $20 139d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 62¢ $40 139d
UFC Fight Night: Bruna Brasil vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweight, P BUY Brasil 52¢ $10 139d
Will Javid Basharat win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 139d
Will Wang Cong win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 139d
UFC Fight Night: Muin Gafurov vs. Jakub Wiklacz (Bantamweight, Prelims BUY Gafurov 31¢ $10 139d
UFC Fight Night: Muin Gafurov vs. Jakub Wiklacz (Bantamweight, Prelims BUY Gafurov 35¢ $10 139d
UFC Fight Night: Muin Gafurov vs. Jakub Wiklacz (Bantamweight, Prelims BUY Gafurov 47¢ $10 139d
UFC Fight Night: Muin Gafurov vs. Jakub Wiklacz (Bantamweight, Prelims BUY Gafurov 54¢ $10 139d
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Klaudia Sygula (Women's Bantam BUY Cachoeira 13¢ $10 139d
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Klaudia Sygula (Women's Bantam BUY Cachoeira 34¢ $10 139d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,453.67 · official $2,453.67 (match) · 50 history records