Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:10:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F7
0xf797…0bf2
world · 181 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$36,339 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$33,144 · open +$2,174
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$61,200
Realized+$33,144
Unrealized+$2,174
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses69 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions75
Markets (closed)118 / 181
History coverage41d
Avg bet$1,225
Trades / day79.0
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 75 History 118 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20,420
7 days+$20,359
14 days+$28,688
30 days+$32,595
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $10,866 $11,279 +$413 (+4%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $6,496 $6,551 +$55 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 89¢ 90¢ $4,930 $5,009 +$79 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 57¢ 60¢ $3,970 $4,165 +$195 (+5%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $3,903 $3,952 +$49 (+1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 86¢ 99¢ $3,450 $3,946 +$496 (+14%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? No 54¢ 62¢ $2,778 $3,173 +$395 (+14%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? No 58¢ 60¢ $2,883 $2,975 +$92 (+3%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $2,627 $2,678 +$50 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 69¢ 98¢ $1,380 $1,961 +$581 (+42%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1,421 $1,553 +$132 (+9%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? No 74¢ 77¢ $1,236 $1,280 +$44 (+4%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $943 $983 +$40 (+4%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $939 $973 +$34 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 27¢ 28¢ $895 $952 +$57 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 63¢ 82¢ $553 $725 +$171 (+31%)
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 66¢ $621 $668 +$48 (+8%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 48¢ 46¢ $679 $646 −$32 (-5%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $566 $630 +$65 (+11%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 86¢ 88¢ $516 $527 +$11 (+2%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 63¢ $477 $499 +$22 (+5%)
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? Tesla 9¢ 4¢ $976 $473 −$503 (-52%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 81¢ 92¢ $405 $460 +$55 (+14%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? No 64¢ 64¢ $380 $385 +$6 (+2%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 30¢ 30¢ $368 $358 −$10 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $698 +$102 +14%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $39 +$21 +54%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1,877 +$123 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $3,813 +$5,477 +144%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $2,958 +$1,450 +49%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $14,570 +$1,099 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $5,431 +$3,244 +60%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $4,112 +$1,097 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6,995 +$3,583 +51%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $1,641 −$1,205 -74%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $5,854 −$2,714 -46%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $4,518 +$2,162 +48%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $410 −$46 -11%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $46 +$5,773 +12633%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $380 +$255 +67%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 10 $524 −$524 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 10 $794 +$59 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $2,300 −$125 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $1,771 +$529 +30%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 06 $94 +$65 +69%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 06 $46 −$46 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 06 $52 −$52 -100%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 06 $655 −$115 -18%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 06 $271 −$94 -35%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Jun 06 $724 −$717 -99%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 06 $31 −$22 -70%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 06 $31 +$66 +212%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 06 $859 +$121 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $504 +$96 +19%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $6,103 +$748 +12%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31? Jun 01 $3 +$31 +1150%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $332 +$94 +28%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in May? Jun 01 $605 +$165 +27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $4,155 +$2,295 +55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $11,117 +$2,229 +20%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $8,660 +$3,713 +43%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 31 $14 −$14 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 494 million subscribers by June 30? May 31 $91 −$86 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 31 $5 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 31 $134 +$42 +31%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 31 $186 −$186 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 29 $879 −$52 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $306 +$1,189 +389%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on May 29 $223 +$382 +171%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 28 $4,025 −$2,757 -68%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 28 $76 +$15 +19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? May 28 $429 +$28 +7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $3,300 +$640 +19%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? May 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 52% +$7,193
tech 23% +$20,224
other 11% +$1,033
crypto 10% +$4,893
politics 3% +$2,280
finance 1% +$152
sports 1% −$447
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $5 15m
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $6 15m
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $17 1h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $13 2h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $3 4h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $153 4h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $141 4h
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $0 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $2,932 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $4,951 6h
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $2 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7h
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? BUY Yes 44¢ $377 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 8h
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $10 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $48 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $48 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY No 23¢ $98 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $96 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+73.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +121.9% +100.8% 74% 58% +14.4%
≤30d 106 +101.5% +82.3% 58% 49% +7.9%
≤90d 118 +91.6% +73.4% 58% 50% +7.8%
all 118 +91.6% +73.4% 58% 50% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover79.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +73.4% 50% +7.8%
10% +56.8% 41% -2.5%
15% ← realistic here +41.6% 35% -11.9%
20% +27.8% 31% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61,200.41 · official $61,200.81 (match) · 3500 history records