Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf796…8689 crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$208 (-30%) realized −$193 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%14W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$60
world 13% −$66
other 11% −$29
politics 7% −$3
tech 3% −$21
culture 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-51.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -7.1% -15.9% 50% 50% +16.1%
≤30d 20 -11.4% -19.9% 55% 45% -21.1%
≤90d 41 -46.3% -51.4% 34% 29% -38.2%
all 41 -46.3% -51.4% 34% 29% -38.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.4% 29% -38.2%
10% -56.1% 29% -44.1%
15% -60.3% 27% -49.5%
20% -64.2% 17% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -78% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$193
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses14 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)41 / 55
History coverage52d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Yes 18¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-82%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 23 $10 −$5 -45%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 20 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 20 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 20 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 20 $82 −$14 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 20 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 20 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 20 $26 +$24 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +8%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? May 20 $5 +$4 +78%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May? May 16 $8 +$3 +43%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? May 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? May 16 $13 −$13 -96%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? May 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? May 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Trump announce new sanctions on China? May 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans? May 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 14 $5 +$2 +50%
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in May? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 11 $15 +$6 +38%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 35¢ $5 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 24d
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 24d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $31 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $31 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $31 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $15 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.14 · official $88.14 (match) · 110 history records