Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:33:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf793…87d0 sports 176 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%26W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$5
politics 28% −$7
other 23% −$5
crypto 6% −$1
economics 5% $0
culture 4% −$1
world 4% $0
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 59 -0.4% -9.9% 7% 0% -9.8%
all 176 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses26 / 150
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)176 / 176
History coverage155d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 176 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 23 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $77 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $29 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $78 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $160 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $71 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $118 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $113 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 08 $75 $0 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $82 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 07 $113 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $84 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $49 $0 -1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $85 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $36 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $121 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $77 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $38 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? Apr 28 $36 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 14 $135 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 13 $111 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $93 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 12 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $91 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 11 $46 −$2 -3%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $80 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $47 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $36 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $36 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 12d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $38 26d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 26d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 26d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $33 36d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $33 36d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $30 36d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $30 37d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $37 37d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $37 37d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $32 37d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $32 37d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $28 37d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $29 38d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $28 38d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $28 38d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $39 38d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $39 39d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 39d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 39d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $29 39d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $29 39d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 39d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 39d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $27 39d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $27 40d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $39 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 781 history records