Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:57:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F7
0xf78f…f98d
sports · 1112 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$63 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$77 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$79
Realized−$77
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses627 / 465
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1092 / 1112
History coverage141d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 20 History 1092 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$19
14 days+$43
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Bo Nickal 73¢ 72¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-6%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 79¢ 78¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 57¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Yes 57¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 55¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Seattle Mariners 57¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 55¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 51¢ 50¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-3%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 52¢ 50¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 49¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 23¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles San Diego Padres 46¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner BNK FEARX 58¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+72%)
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 1 Ninjas in Pyjamas 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox Toronto Blue Jays 62¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Seattle Mariners 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $3 +$2 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 +$3 +197%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $2 +$3 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $2 +$3 +114%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $2 +$3 +129%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $3 +$2 +93%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $3 +$2 +79%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $3 +$2 +97%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$5 +109%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $3 +$2 +46%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $3 +$2 +57%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $3 +$2 +73%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $3 +$2 +76%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $3 +$2 +62%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $3 −$3 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $4 +$1 +31%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $2 +$3 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $5 +$5 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $6 +$4 +58%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 07 $3 +$2 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 06 $3 +$2 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $2 +$3 +105%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $3 +$2 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $3 +$2 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $3 +$2 +62%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $3 +$2 +90%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $3 +$2 +73%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $3 +$2 +76%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $4 +$1 +31%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $4 +$1 +24%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $4 +$1 +40%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $3 +$2 +56%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% −$48
other 1% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 73¢ $7 1h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 1h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 1h
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $2 1h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $4 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 73¢ $4 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $3 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $2 3h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $2 3h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 48¢ $2 3h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $3 3h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ $2 3h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $3 3h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 52¢ $3 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $2 3h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $3 3h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $3 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $2 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 72¢ $4 13h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $3 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 33¢ $2 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $4 34h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 74¢ $4 34h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $3 34h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $3 34h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 54¢ $3 34h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $2 34h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 57¢ $3 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +27.9% +15.7% 68% 68% +14.0%
≤30d 101 +11.7% +1.1% 64% 64% +9.5%
≤90d 767 -7.3% -16.2% 54% 54% -14.4%
all 1092 -4.0% -13.2% 57% 57% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 57% -10.9%
10% -21.5% 56% -19.4%
15% -29.0% 48% -27.2%
20% -36.0% 35% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.09 · official $78.80 (match) · 2030 history records