Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:57:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F7 0xf789…6c68 sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$270 (+29%) realized +$270 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$193
14 days+$262
30 days+$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$264
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +56.6% +41.7% 83% 83% +44.1%
≤30d 26 +15.2% +4.2% 58% 58% +23.5%
≤90d 26 +15.2% +4.2% 58% 58% +23.5%
all 26 +15.2% +4.2% 58% 58% +23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 58% +23.5%
10% -5.8% 58% +11.6%
15% -14.9% 58% +0.9%
20% -23.2% 54% -9.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$19 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$270
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 33
History coverage11d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 62¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $70 +$60 +86%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 +$42 +83%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $54 +$61 +114%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$45 +90%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $81 +$75 +93%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$58 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $43 +$43 +101%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$39 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +91%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 AND U BUY 47¢ $51 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $70 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Be BUY $10 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $54 7d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 7d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $81 8d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 8d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $43 9d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will BUY 25¢ $5 11d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY 13¢ $5 11d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.19 · official $150.19 (match) · 49 history records