Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:14:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F7 0xf788…6f86 sports 1486 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,787 (+2%) realized +$2,782 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate62%925W / 558L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$102
14 days+$160
30 days+$1,350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$2,713
other 32% −$108
world 0% −$14
crypto 0% +$4
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -2.9% -12.2% 65% 62% +2.7%
≤30d 105 -4.6% -13.7% 64% 61% -1.9%
≤90d 717 -2.2% -11.5% 62% 61% -7.3%
all 1483 -0.5% -10.0% 62% 61% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 61% -7.6%
10% -18.6% 52% -16.5%
15% -26.5% 33% -24.5%
20% -33.7% 18% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$42 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$2,782
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses925 / 558
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1483 / 1486
History coverage164d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1483 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Yes 80¢ 100¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+25%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 80¢ 80¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 40¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$9 +43%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $33 +$9 +27%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 +$8 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $19 +$6 +31%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $18 +$11 +60%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 +$5 +29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $30 +$8 +27%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$2 -15%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $60 +$25 +42%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $13 +$20 +152%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $28 +$7 +26%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $121 +$27 +23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$8 +40%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $28 +$17 +60%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $43 +$5 +11%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $20 +$14 +67%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $19 +$4 +22%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $20 +$4 +20%
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $18 +$7 +38%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $36 +$7 +18%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $36 +$10 +27%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $36 +$6 +16%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $39 +$7 +18%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $32 +$7 +21%
Azerbaijan vs. Malta: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $68 +$14 +21%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $20 +$6 +31%
Belarus vs. Syria: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $20 +$7 +34%
Belarus vs. Syria: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $61 +$11 +18%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $32 +$29 +89%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Marta Kostyuk vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-01? Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $18 −$18 -100%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $20 −$5 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $30 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $30 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $29 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $41 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $20 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $33 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $22 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 65¢ $15 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 76¢ $19 9h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $18 23h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 25h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $13 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $23 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 77¢ $18 30h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $30 31h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $13 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 54¢ $13 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Morocco 82¢ $31 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $85 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $60 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 80¢ $30 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $13 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $13 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $121 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 79¢ $28 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 71¢ $20 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.56 · official $74.56 (match) · 3078 history records