Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf788…39d9 other 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 636d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%5W / 84L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% −$12
other 25% −$4
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 89 -2.7% -12.0% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

636d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses5 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage636d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $58 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $58 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $117 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 22 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $59 $0 +0%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $59 $0 +0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $59 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 27 $59 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Feb 24 $59 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 24 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Zach LaVine lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Brian Blase be Trump's HHS Secretary? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Evan Mobley lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Saints win the NFC South? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Nice win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Martin Shkreli jail in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Rainbow airdrop in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Solana ETF approved in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Biden pardon SBF? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Base airdrop in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Commanders win the NFC Championship? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
No Trump coin reaches $1b? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Cardinals win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dalton Kincaid be the top Fantasy Tight End? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2024? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Patriots vs. Bills Dec 21 $0 $0 -3%
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Arch Manning win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.35-1.39°C? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dillon Gabriel win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
1-25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jusuf Nurkic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the AFC South? Dec 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 1h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 13h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 17d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 17d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 39d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 40d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 45d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 45d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $59 72d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $59 73d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 76d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 77d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 85d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 85d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $59 94d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $5 95d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $54 95d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $59 100d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $59 101d
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $59 104d
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 100¢ $59 104d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $59 106d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $49 107d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $10 107d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 114d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 117d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $59 118d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $59 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 262 history records