Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf788…695b crypto 1151 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$358 (+3%) realized +$358 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate73%838W / 313L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$61
14 days+$169
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$207
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -7.0% -15.9% 68% 67% -14.5%
≤30d 1149 +1.4% -8.3% 73% 70% -7.7%
≤90d 1151 +1.6% -8.1% 73% 70% -7.7%
all 1151 +1.6% -8.1% 73% 70% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 70% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 49% -16.5%
15% -24.9% 32% -24.6%
20% -32.3% 20% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$358
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses838 / 313
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1151 / 1151
History coverage49d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1151 Trades
no open positions (315 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$7 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$7 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$6 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$5 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$3 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$3 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$4 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$3 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$4 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $11 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $11 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $11 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $11 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $11 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $11 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $11 32h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 32h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 33h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $11 33h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $11 33h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $11 34h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $11 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $11 34h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $11 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $11 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $11 34h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 34h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $11 34h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $11 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $11 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 34h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.32 · official $2.86 · 1988 history records