Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf786…25fb other 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$770 (-26%) realized −$718 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$1,410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$55
14 days−$748
30 days−$742
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$127
crypto 27% −$584
sports 11% −$83
weather 4% −$67
politics 0% +$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-45.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -37.4% -43.4% 19% 19% -26.0%
≤30d 38 -39.4% -45.2% 24% 21% -60.5%
≤90d 49 -39.4% -45.2% 27% 22% -60.3%
all 49 -39.4% -45.2% 27% 22% -60.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.2% 22% -60.3%
10% -50.4% 20% -64.1%
15% -55.2% 20% -67.6%
20% -59.6% 14% -70.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$28 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$1,410
Realized−$718
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 36
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions20
Markets (closed)49 / 72
History coverage75d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? No 54¢ 54¢ $554 $548 −$5 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $259 $228 −$31 (-12%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 35¢ 38¢ $94 $103 +$9 (+10%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $84 $85 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 31¢ 34¢ $73 $79 +$6 (+8%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $42 $41 −$2 (-4%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-4%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $57 $37 −$20 (-35%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 53¢ 52¢ $37 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-5%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $27 $32 +$5 (+17%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 25¢ 22¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-14%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? No 20¢ 14¢ $17 $13 −$5 (-27%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-8%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? No 14¢ 12¢ $13 $10 −$2 (-18%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$22 +73%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$1 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$1 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge Jun 16 $11 −$6 -53%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $39 +$81 +206%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $13 +$37 +276%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $13 −$6 -46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $79 −$79 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 10 $59 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$13 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 07 $105 −$105 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 07 $512 −$426 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 07 $105 −$92 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 07 $21 +$9 +45%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 06 $2 $0 -9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 04 $4 $0 -3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $59 +$6 +10%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 19 $10 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 8? Apr 08 $2 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 8? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 8? Apr 08 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 8? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 8? Apr 08 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 7? Apr 08 $10 +$10 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 4? Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 6? Apr 07 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 6? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on April 4? Apr 07 $1 +$1 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 53¢ $37 27m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 54¢ $506 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $43 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 54¢ $55 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 13h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $2 14h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $2 14h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $4 14h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $33 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 24h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 38h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 38h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 38h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 38h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge BUY 31¢ $6 38h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge SELL 30¢ $5 38h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge BUY 31¢ $6 38h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 41h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $85 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 54¢ $14 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 64¢ $14 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 48¢ $7 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $14 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $14 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 25¢ $22 3d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $37 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,409.99 · official $1,409.99 (match) · 151 history records