Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf785…e366 other 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized +$4 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%79W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$92
tech 22% −$42
politics 14% +$51
economics 6% +$6
finance 5% −$38
sports 5% +$2
culture 2% +$118
world 2% −$17
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +13.0% +2.2% 47% 47% -1.9%
≤30d 36 +13.0% +2.2% 47% 47% -1.9%
≤90d 45 +17.8% +6.5% 51% 49% +8.2%
all 147 -0.6% -10.1% 54% 39% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 39% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 34% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 27% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 22% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses79 / 68
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)147 / 153
History coverage231d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 20¢ 12¢ $28 $16 −$12 (-42%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Over 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+150%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+138%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 60¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 80¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$3 +146%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +73%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +152%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$3 +140%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 −$4 -52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +109%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$5 +510%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 +$9 +152%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 +$4 +73%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +129%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 +$3 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 +$11 +55%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$4 -56%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 +$9 +79%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 13 $7 $0 -2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of May 11 2026? May 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $15 +$5 +33%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 15 $16 +$64 +400%
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? May 14 $11 +$5 +48%
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? May 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $10 −$9 -89%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $33 −$13 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 20 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together, without a clea Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 470 million subscribers by December 31? Mar 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on December 29? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? Mar 10 $11 −$2 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $1 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 80¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $2 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 28h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $2 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $2 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $3 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 28h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $29 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 29h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 16¢ $1 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 31h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $6 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $6 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 12¢ $2 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 78¢ $10 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.96 · official $23.96 (match) · 428 history records