Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:52:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F7 0xf783…ddf8 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+6%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$31
sports 4% −$9
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 48% -4.3%
≤30d 25 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 48% -4.3%
≤90d 25 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 48% -4.3%
all 25 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 48% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 48% -4.3%
10% -20.3% 32% -13.5%
15% -28.0% 32% -21.8%
20% -35.1% 24% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage6d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $32 +$3 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $28 +$4 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 +$2 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 −$2 -5%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $12 −$8 -69%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $12 −$8 -70%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $48 +$6 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$13 +51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$9 +175%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$3 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 +$10 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 +$16 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 $0 -3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 $0 -4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $32 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 72¢ $8 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $26 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 28h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 82¢ $16 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 28h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $12 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $12 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 37h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $38 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $16 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 89¢ $14 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records